Jessica Pegula rallies from slow start at US Open 2026: Is a slow start a weakness or a dangerous weapon?

When Leylah Fernandez raised her fist after a crosscourt forehand winner in the third game of the opening set, many fans on Louis Armstrong Stadium began to think about an upset. The 31st seed led 3-0, served confidently, and made Jessica Pegula look lost. Fans remember Fernandez's 6-1 set, but I followed the statistics and saw another number: Pegula held only 1 of 3 service games in the first set and did not create a single break point against the Canadian. The opening of this match was not when Pegula won the second set. It began the moment she admitted she was “not really there” in the first set. Pegula, the No. 3 seed, did the most familiar thing of her 2026 season: she lost the first set and then came back. She beat Leylah Fernandez 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 to reach the fourth round of the US Open. But if we just tell the score, we miss the deeper layer. This was the 11th time in 2026 that Pegula won after losing the first set, tying Coco Gauff. That number is both a compliment to her mental endurance and a warning for her Grand Slam ambitions. Based on my experience of watching matches, I know that in a Grand Slam, arriving on court with a feeling of being out of the match is usually punished immediately. Fernandez did exactly that in the first set. She stood deep when returning serve, hit flat forehands into tight angles, and forced Pegula to run constantly to her backhand. Statistics show Fernandez hit 13 winners, but she also made 25 unforced errors. A winner-to-error ratio of 0.52 is an inefficient number for an attacking player. She could create break points, but she could not sustain her sharpness over three sets. Pegula, by contrast, began to read the match better after losing the break in the third game of the second set. The important thing was not that she hit harder, but that she changed the placement of her serves. The body serves in the first set were replaced by wide, angled serves that forced Fernandez to lose time in setting up her backhand. In the final two sets, Pegula saved 8 of 9 break points and converted 5 of 7 break opportunities. That 88.9% break-point saving rate was not luck. It reflects the real-time tactical adjustment of a player who reached the 2026 US Open final. I do not write about how they win; I write about what they changed in order to win. Pegula changed her returns, changed her shadow swings, and above all changed her movement rhythm. In the first set she admitted her footwork was “lazy,” letting the ball drop too deep and forcing her to hit from defensive positions. In the second set she moved three steps closer to the baseline, cut off the ball earlier, and denied Fernandez time to prepare. That is a subtle change in space, one that stats cannot show but the naked eye can see from the stands. The door of the World Cup dressing room in 2026 was closed in front of me, and I learned that when you cannot enter inside, observe from the highest vantage point. In this match, the view from the stands told me Pegula was not panicking; she was simply waiting for Fernandez to lose control. The context becomes even more important when looking at the draw. Pegula will face Sorana Cirstea in the fourth round. Cirstea, the 36-year-old Romanian, is still enjoying one of the best stretches of her career after beating Marta Kostyuk in the third round. Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka, the defending champion and top seed, is showing why she is the favorite. Sabalenka beat Anna Rakhimova with 10 aces, only 1 double fault, and won 74.6% of her service points. More frighteningly, she faced zero break points. The win extended her US Open winning streak to 16 matches, the best since Serena Williams’s run from 2026 to 2026. But do not rush to hand Sabalenka the trophy. Taylor Townsend is waiting in the fourth round, and the American just had the most remarkable performance of Friday. Townsend beat Diana Shnaider in three sets, saving 10 of 12 break points and converting 5 of 7 break opportunities. Townsend has reached the US Open fourth round for the third time. Her brave serve-and-volley style, her ability to save break points, and her psychological freedom could create an upset against Sabalenka. The legend’s error was caught by me that year, and I know: no one is immune to statistics. Look at Townsend’s numbers: she saved 83.3% of break points against Shnaider and converted 71.4% of her own break points. Those rates are higher than the average of most top-10 players, but they come from a small sample. Against Sabalenka, Townsend will need to keep that precision for two full sets, something she has never done before at a Grand Slam. The larger story remains Pegula. She is facing the opportunity to win her first Grand Slam and become world No. 1. But to do so, she will almost certainly have to beat Sabalenka in the semifinals. People will say that her 11 comeback wins prove her extraordinary character. I look at those matches and see a structural problem: why does she always have to chase? If she starts a semifinal with a 33% first-set service games held rate, she will have no chance. Sabalenka just won a match without facing a single break point. The real question is not whether Pegula can come back against Sabalenka. The question is whether she can avoid needing a comeback in the first place. If Pegula learns the lesson from this match – active footwork from the first game, aggressive return position from the start – she can make the semifinal a balanced contest.