Guenther Steiner: Small Chance for Hamilton to Win Eighth Title at Ferrari, but Needs Help from Antonelli's Mistakes and Mercedes' Technical Issues

On the track there are 20 drivers, but the real race takes place between two brains. When Guenther Steiner, former Haas Team Principal, sat down at the microphone of The Red Flags Podcast, he wasn't just commenting on a single race; he was outlining a strategic scenario for the remainder of the 2026 season. With Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari, Charles Leclerc alongside, and Kimi Antonelli leading the championship for Mercedes, Steiner delivered a sharp analysis: Hamilton's chance to win an eighth title is there, but small, and it depends on two key factors – mistakes from young Antonelli and ongoing technical issues at Mercedes. The context of the 2026 season is witnessing a significant restructuring. The new power unit and chassis regulations have created a more balanced competition among top teams. Ferrari, under Fred Vasseur, has regained competitiveness, but Mercedes remains the leading team with Antonelli – a promising but risky rookie driver. Steiner emphasizes that Hamilton has outperformed Leclerc for most of the season, and that's why Ferrari needs to bet everything on the British driver. "If Ferrari is serious about the championship, they must support Lewis, because he is ahead of Charles," Steiner said. He predicts Vasseur will implement team orders, abandoning the "papaya rules" (the policy of letting both drivers race freely) that McLaren previously used, and focus all resources on Hamilton. However, the 59-point gap between Antonelli and teammate George Russell is a massive hurdle. Steiner acknowledges that Hamilton only has a small chance if Antonelli makes mistakes and Mercedes continues to have technical issues. "He's young, and Mercedes sometimes has trouble with the car, including mechanical issues," Steiner pointed out. This raises a crucial tactical question: can Ferrari close that gap in the second half of the season? Digging deeper, Steiner highlighted a blind spot in Ferrari's strategy: maintaining symmetric support for both drivers could reduce the championship chance. In a long season, concentrating points on a single driver is the optimal strategy. However, this also carries risks of internal conflict, especially when Leclerc – a talented and beloved driver in Italy – is pushed into a number 2 role. Steiner believes Vasseur will make this difficult decision, but it could cause turmoil within the team. Another counterintuitive perspective from Steiner is the comparison between Hamilton and Russell. Both have the same points, but Hamilton drives for Ferrari while Russell drives for Mercedes. This suggests that, in comparable machinery, Hamilton and Russell are equal in ability. Therefore, Hamilton's chances depend more on external factors than his own performance. Steiner said: "It would be a great moment for the sport if someone wins eight championships." But he was also realistic: "Small chance, but still there." In conclusion, Steiner paints a challenging tactical picture for Ferrari. Hamilton needs a perfect second half, while Antonelli must make mistakes and Mercedes must weaken. With a 59-point gap, everything must align. The question is: will Vasseur have the courage to bet all on Hamilton, and will Leclerc accept a number 2 role? The second half of the 2026 season will answer. On the track there are 20 drivers, but the real race takes place between two brains. And Guenther Steiner has just given advice to one of them.